The Future of TV
Aug 14th, 2007 by Andy
No, I don’t know the future of TV - but I have some ideas. When Verizon came out to my house a couple of years ago to hook up my FiOS service I think I started to get a hint of the future. Fiber optics all the way to my house! I did cringe a little when they cut the copper and hauled it away.
Josh Catone over at Read/WriteWeb asked “Is the TV Channel Dead?” after a similar post over on Techdirt. This is something I started thinking about when my FiOS went in. Obviously the TV channel isn’t dead yet - but is it dying?
I think channels will survive - we see the concept of channels cropping up at places like YouTube. I think the majority of broadcast TV is going to die. News and sports will obviously continue to be broadcast in some manner. But for sitcoms, dramas, and almost all TV shows I think we’ll see a shift to “release times” and not broadcast schedules - which is the conclusion that Josh draws too. I can’t remember the last time I watched a show live - everything comes off the DVR. Why not a big DVR in the sky (or back at Verizon) that records everything and pumps it down to me over my fiber connection whenever I request it?
I’m not sure what has to change with the infrastructure to really support this but it seems like it will certainly happen. It will be interesting to see how it impacts things. Advertising will have to get embedded into shows which means the internet concept of “page views” will be more important that traditional ratings. Shows won’t have to worry about going up against other shows on the schedule - people can watch both, whenever they have time. Advertisers won’t really care as long as they reach the same number of people.
Will this make sports a unique advertising platform? One of the few things that everyone actually watches at the same time?
Real-time shared experiences on a massive scale (e.g., the Super Bowl) will continue to fade away — even with sports. TV will fight it by offering rewards to people to interact as soon as a show broadcasts — but that will be a short-lived fad. For live events (sports, concerts, etc.) this will only make really being there and experiencing them that much more interesting, and that’s not a bad thing.
Advertising will shift to embedded product placement and an integrated shopping experience. Like this: pause show. click shirt. select size / color / shipping options (or leave defaults). place order. unpause show. That’s where the money is — and the consumers want it.